lakingsnews.com will be writing a feature article on this post season’s free agents that may fit well with our Kings. We will focus on unrestricted free agents given Lombardi’s tendency to stay away from offer sheets. We start with arguably this summer’s most dynamic option and one in the hearts and minds of many Kings fans at the trade deadline – Ilya Kovalchuk.
Kovalchuk is in his prime. 6’2″, 230 pounds. 26 years old. Strong. Lightning fast. A cannon of a slap shot, a laser of the wrist. Uncharacteristically tough for a pure scorer, similar to Crosby and Ovechkin. Will drop the gloves. Will push opposing forwards around. Will go to the net. If you cannot tell, I am gushing. Who wouldn’t gush at two 50 goal seasons and three 40 goal ones since his rookie year in 2001-2002? He hasn’t fallen under 40 goals since 2002-2003. Nearly two thirds of his goals have been 5 on 5. He is greater than a point per game player in his career. Want more? He has played in nearly every game of the season since his 2nd year in the NHL. He is not injury prone unlike, for example, a Marion Gaborik. Still not enough? He had 6 points in 5 playoff games with the New Jersey Devils to lead the team and on a team with which he had little familiarity while learning the system on a crash course basis.
So, let’s talk about potential drawbacks to signing Ilya. We are paying retail, most likely between $7M to $9M. My guess will be $7M and change. A big knock on Ilya is his career plus-minus stat which some translate as demonstrative of his defensive shortcomings. While I do believe the stat is useful, the big picture is more telling. He has not played on a particularly good defensive team in his entire career and, this season, he was a +10. You also would expect a gifted goal scorer to look for goal scoring opportunities and not play a conservative two way game. Any GM who pays Ilya $8M so he can play near the blue line and play a shut down role should have their head examined.
Most importantly though, I look at what our Kings were missing this season – a game breaker. An offensively gifted sniper. Speed at the forward position. A 5 on 5 scorer. A threat that would take the attention away from Kopitar and give teams more than Anze to cover on the first line. That will only improve Anze’s scoring as well as allow a player like Smyth, who is getting older, to play closer to his intended role as the second line left wing with Stoll and Brown. It’s not just the heart that yearns for him.
No player will ever be a perfect fit but big, fast and tough 40 to 50 goal scorers don’t grow on trees. Ilya is that and more. He is worth every dollar of $8M if that is the price tag and will cause little impact to the cap with the likely departure of Frolov. In addition, he will put butts in the seats. Los Angeles fans are fickle and this is a town of expectations – just ask the basketball team that we let play in our arena. Bring them a star and they will flock. When I look at Stanley Cup contending and winning teams, I see one thing in common. A duo of star forwards. Go through them in your head, start with the Penguins and Red Wings, skip 2007 to avoid hurting yourself with sharp objects and go back each season…are you doing it? Keep going…get the point? Now, repeat to yourself, Kopitar & Kovalchuk. Again. Kopitar & Kovalchuk. Again…
Do you see(if it happens)that Kovi-Kopi line playing a run and gun style?TM isn’t exactly known for letting loose on the reins,or encouraging creativity.NJ wasn’t exactly willing to do it either,and it cost them the first round.
Run and gun akin to Vancouver’s first line? Yes. Akin to Crosby-Malkin? yes. Run and gun like Ovechkin-Semin? No.
You can have a fast paced offensive line without sacrificing defensive responsibility.
Nice analysis. If the contract doesn’t get in the way of signing Doughty long term, and the cap hit doesn’t exceed the $8 mil mark, I would vote to bring the guy in.
Defensive questions aren’t even a consideration with a talent like this.
Agreed. When you start talking about more than 8 million, it gets a little iffy.
8 mill or less and I am sold.
The Kings currently possess players with the following qualities:
- Puck possession
- Passing
- Grit
- Hitting
- Net presence / deflections
- Speed (though not enough of it)
- Hard slap shot
- Hard wrist shot
- Accurate slap shot
- Shot blocking
- High hockey IQ
Off the top of my head, those are your major categories. What is missing? An accurate wrist shot. Kopitar has a hard wrist shot, and it can be accurate, though he doesn’t use it enough.
Kovalchuk has an average shooting percentage of 14.8. If you drop the high and low, it looks more like 15, pushing 16. Kopitar’s lifetime average so far is 12.7, hasn’t touched 16%. Ilya has hit 17 and 18% in prior seasons. It sounds like a small difference, but it isn’t when you consider how many shots a player takes. Kopitar gets the puck on net about 230 times a year. Brown, who shoots like a maniac, has had 292 and 248 shots the last two seasons.
Kovalchuk averages somewhere around 300.
In a Terry Murray shoot first and ask questions later offense (when it isn’t mired along the boards ofcourse) will see Kovalchuk’s goal column rise to likely record breaking heights.
Just for fun, Brown, who shoots the puck almost as much as Ilya and by far the most on the team on average on the Kings, has a career 9.8 shooting %.
Let Handzus play defense.
For clarification, when I say “record breaking”, I mean personal records for Kovalchuk, not league or Kings records.
This guy’s talent is undisputable. But would he want to play here? Would he be motivated? or just collect paychecks?
Bottom line: He has to want to contribute to the team and win a championship. Does he want that? Will he work for it? Is the guy a good fit? If he just wants a fat paycheck, could he turn into a cancer in the locker room if he is branded as an underachiever.
Got to consider the down side of an investment like this. Quite a bit of risk.
I honestly don’t know…
I am not too concerned about whether he wants to win or not.
If he was just out to collect a paycheck, he would still be in Atlanta, since I think it is pretty clear (though I could be wrong) that no one is going to offer him the kind of money the Thrashers put on the table (besides the KHL).
He left because he wanted to go to a viable franchise that will give him playoff action and legitimate chances at the cup. Atleast that’s the prevailing thought the world at large that is not inside Kovalchuk’s head.
I have read nothing to suggest he is a locker room cancer, but this also goes along with something Lombardi has often said about getting players like Kovalchuk who take up most of the limelight. He has said that once your core leadership group is established, you can bring in a guy who may not be the best character player but it more purely a talent asset without it disrupting the team. I believe his comparison was the Yankees bringing in Jeff O’Neill. I could be wrong there, since I don’t care for or follow baseball.
Either way, the question really becomes, do you feel the Kings’ core leadership has firmly rooted itself in the locker room? If so, then many of your concerns, while valid, become less risky. If not, then you are right and Kovalchuk could turn into a problem.
So really, you don’t need to ask yourself how much character Kovy has, but raher how much character do Brown, Kopitar, Greene and Doughty have? Personally I think they have enough after how hard we watched them battle and weather storms all year long.
But back to Kovy’s character for a moment. As Bobby said, the guy doesn’t just score goals, he hits, sometimes fights, and plays a character type of game, even if he doesn’t really know much about playing defense. I have never had the same sense about Kovalchuk as I do about Ovechkin that he can’t be coached.
Many would say Kovy is incapable or simply doesn’t want to play defense. I have two counters:
1. I’ve never seen or known Atlanta as a team to play defense.
2. He was not in New Jersey long enough to truly learn a wholly new system.
There is a possible downside here, if he really can’t adapt to a new system. Lombardi must ask himself if he thinks Kovy is capable of learning the basic structure of Murray’s defensive system. Luckily for us, TM’s system puts the major defensive weight on the center. The wings are there to break out the puck from the blue line and through the neutral zone, not recover it in the first place. This is a legitimate concern though. Kovy doesn’t need to be a defensive stalwart, but he does need to play the system and thrive within it.
As for him wanting to play for the Kings, well, only time will tell.
I doubt character is a big issue. I watched him pretty closely in his last series against Philly. He led in ice time, and on a number of occasions I saw him the entire two minutes working on the power play.
From what I’ve seen of the guy, he is also a fierce competitor. Cap hit and competitive bidding from other clubs are the only two reasons why the Kings would not land Kovi. He’s a great personality and would be perfect for the team if the price is right.
One other point that I haven’t heard from anyone yet: The Kings didn’t seem to have a huge advantage at home as opposed to their road record. With Kovi coming in, I think that would change as I believe that TM having the ability to pick and choose when a possible Kovi-Kopi line goes on the ice would allow him to dictate mismatches that we didn’t see this last season. TM would probably also be able to minimize potential defensive issues.
One more thing in regards to Kovy’s character.
Kings’ management has not been shy about questioning character. They flat out said there was really no interest in Heatley last season due to character concerns. We also know that Dean was inquiring about Kovy at the deadline.
You don’t pick up the phone and dial if you are that concerned.
The supposed reason for Dean not going after Kovy harder in a trade are more logistical concerns than character ones, and most importantly, not wanting to break up the core of the team or its future for what could have been just a rental.
I really think with Kovy in only comes down to how much money he wants. I believe Dean will be willing to give him many years, just not at a price that will stop the Kings from resigning the homegrown talent. But this is where Dean’s and Jeff Solomon’s brilliance in structuring contracts will come in handy. Many of our current bigger contracts expire when younger players ELC’s are up.
If the price is right, I am 100 percent sold on acquiring Kovalchuk.
Interesting information and point of view presented.. gives me more to ponder on..
I do think the team chemistry is a VERY important concideration as this team is working so well together. But you are right,
Dean was inquiring about Kovy so he is certainly a player of interest for the Kings’ team for the next season.
I’m not even sold on 8 million, to be honest, but I think that’s a fair upper limit.
I hope he’s seeing what’s going on around the league contract-wise, and hope he takes a cue out of Hossa’s book. I’m very thankful a player of Hossa’s caliber saw the big picture, and I’m hopeful that attitude spreads. If Kovy wants to be here and understands the cap ramifications, he’ll lessen his demands, I’m sure.