Shea Weber, Drew Doughty & Market Value

As panic fills the streets of Kings’ fans minds over Shea Weber’s arbitration award of $7.5 million and the potentially devastating impact it may have on Drew Doughty’s contract (impact ranging from “Drew will want $7.5 million!” to “Oh my God, oh my God, oh my God”), let us each take the Lotus Position, shut our eyes and breathe…now, hum from your center the words Dreeeeeeewww…Dreeeeeewww…good. Open your eyes.

Shea Weber received an award of $7.5 million for one season. That makes him literally the highest paid defenseman in the league. For one season. That does not establish “market” value for top defensemen who seek contracts for more than a season, anymore than Surly getting lucky with a hot, drunk, 20 something year old blonde who is angry at her ex boyfriend, on one random night establishes his target market for the rest of his potential scores. It does not “raise” the market value for any player that will enter into a multi-year contract. Only the “market” does that and that market includes other contracts, with specific multi-year terms, for reasonably comparable players at or about the same age. If the years go up, then the cap hit must come down, at least in this circumvention by any other name era. Are any of those in the $7.5 million dollar range? No.

Brian Campbell is an abortion inducing $7.14 million dollar cap hit. I don’t think Campbell’s contract is an example of anything other than one of the dumbest in league history.

Zdeno Chara, age 34, is at $6.9 million. Comparable? I hear he was paid by the inch.

Jay Bouwmeester at $6.68 million: That contract may be an example of how paying too much, too soon may ruin the player. I just turned around to see if Dean Lombardi whispered that in my ear.

No need to go further down the list. Why? Because the LA Kings offered Drew “more than” $6.5 million dollars for 9 years. Therefore, Dean Lombardi has told Don Meehan and Mark Guy he believes Drew’s market value to be at or “more than” (if I recall the article quote correctly) $6.5 million.

Do we really believe any agent can reasonably (the term being relative) affix a bottom line $7.5 million dollar contract demand for mid or long-term years, thereby eclipsing, for all purposes, Shea Weber’s one year arbitration award and making Drew Doughty the highest paid defenseman in the league? The very same Shea Weber that is his team’s leader, has been the picture of consistency for the past three seasons and has played in the league for 6 seasons? That is older and an all around better player today than Drew (not bad for a 2nd round pick, eh?) While Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook have cap hits (though not necessarily present dollars) of less than $6 million?

This Shea Weber?

King Leonidas

Weber?

Oops…

Shea Weber

Weber

I don’t believe Drew is looking to make history here, partly because the second to last substantive word we got is that the Kings and Drew had an agreement reached in principle (which, as a reminder to a select few, is not the same thing as a done deal and involves necessary further discussions). Now, fellow writer, Quisp, offers an interesting twist on this. He wrote today that whatever Drew Doughty was asking for, just went up. I will wait to hear from our source on that issue but, as of August 2 at 8:47 am , the word was “very close” and it is in Dean Lombardi’s hands. Quisp better be wrong. If he is right, I will let you know…and then consider beating him up.

Shea Weber is not an indication of Drew Doughty’s market value. He never was. So, relax about Drew Doughty.



Categories: L.A. Kings News

Tags: , , , , , , ,

19 replies

  1. Deal in principle? Sorry, that is now gone. Weber got about a million more than most thought. This will affect Doughty’s deal. Doesn’t mean he gets $7.5 per, but he will get more than Dean wants to give now.

    A 4 or 5 year deal is worst case scenario for the Kings.

    If Drew’s agent wants big money, then Dean should only offer around $12/2 and see how Doughty shows up to camp the next 2 years. If he becomes a professional, then give him the huge contract.

    The next CBA could change how contracts are done or could move the UFA age. A 3 year deal could be a bad idea.

    I would love any deal that is 9+ years. Even for $63+ million.

    • Does your 9 year, $63 million dollar deal have a NMC or NTC?

      • This is where I differ from you and Dean. I think four years is plenty of time to figure out which Drew you are paying for, I would give a NTC to get a nine year deal. If it gets Drew to sign for nine years instead of five, then I give it to him. Five years is a terrible contract, unless it is insanely low, like $5 million per. If Drew is the next Lidstrom, why would you want to trade him anyways?

        Richards has a NTC starting next off season, Dean didn’t have a problem keeping that in the contract. At least I haven’t read anywhere that Dean took it out of the contract, which he could do.

        BTW, will you be back on HF when the season starts? Will you be at Frozen Fury?

        • The longer the contract goes, the less cap hit it needs to have, right? Can’t have long term and $7 million dollar cap hit. Well, you could, but then there better not be an NMC or NTC in it. Dean cares about the cap first, flexibility second and cash last. A $6.5 cap hit is manageable. A $7 one is tougher but it is tradable so the NTC/NMC becomes an issue. Anything more than $7 becomes the worst of all worlds. Thus, under your scenario, if there is no NMC and NTC, it is manageable. Some team out there that needs to get to the floor may take it (see Panthers, Florida – if there is even a team in Florida by then) if Drew doesn’t live up to it. Still, I like $6.8 or $6.9. 7 is not a lucky number here but, again, with flexibility…manageable.

          Regarding your questions, no and yes.

          • I understand that flexibility is a good thing in the cap era, but having Drew for 9 years is better than letting him walk as an UFA in 4 or 5 years.

            If Drew is having multiple Norris-quality seasons over the next 4 years, then the NTC is moot since he won’t be moved. Unless you think Drew will fall apart at the age of 25? If Drew continues to show up to camp out of shape, then move him in a couple of years, I’m sure there would be a lot of teams willing to take a chance with Doughty. Just like Philly moved Richards one year before his NTC kicked in.

            Dean was able to move Visnovsky before his NTC kicked in after a poor season and picked up some solid players.

            In five years, $7 million for Drew could be a bargain. With the NBA possibly done for 2011-12, the NHL has a huge opportunity to pick up some new viewers and increase revenue next season. Increased revenue = increased cap.

            All in all, I trust Dean/Solomon to get a deal done that is good for both parties. He’s been able to re-sign players for below market value and Drew may be no different.

            Do you have any word on a Stoll extension being possible before camp?

          • Good words. Remember though, flexibility is not static. Dean wants it to have options, nothing more. Drew wants certainty which means less options. Regarding Stoll, I haven’t heard anything new since my last article.

          • Bobby,

            It’s now 1 week before training camp opens and Drew’s agent comes to you with 2 contracts that Drew is willing to sign or he will hold out. Here are your options:

            5 year deal for $30 million ($6 million cap hit) – buys one UFA year

            9 year deal for $63 million ($7 million cap hit) with a NTC – buys 5 UFA years

            Let Drew hold out for your offer….

            What would be your decision? Do you let him hold out? What final contract offer would you make to Drew while he holds out? Do you sign him to a 5 year deal knowing that if he is as good as you believe, he will get $8+ million on the UFA market along with a NTC/NMC (most teams hand them out like candy).

          • I make a best, last and final offer of 9 years with a $6.78 million dollar cap hit, a limited NTC where he gets to submit a list of 10 teams each season he is wiling to accept trade to (after the NTC kicks in). He jumps on it, praises me for my reasonableness and professionalism, we embrace, I tell him “let’s win a Cup!”, he nods his head yes with a smile and promptly gets his butt in the gym and continues his work outs.

          • You really let him sit out the start of the season for $2 million total dollars? $61 million vs. $63? What do you have against the number 7? My source says that Drew wants to be the highest paid King. ;)

            Hope you enjoy the follow defense to start the season:

            Johnson-Scuderi
            Martinez-Mitchell
            Voynov-Greene
            :)

          • I am a damn good negotiator and Drew is negotiating from a position of weakness, the longer this goes on. At the same time, I want to make my player happy and those numbers are happy numbers.

          • … I’d actually go with the exact same deal that Kopitar received: 7 years, $47.6 million, 3 UFA years.

            I’m not sure if Kopitar had a NTC included in his deal, but I’d do it for Drew if that turned out to be a sticking point.

          • No NTC for Kopitar. Richards is the only King under contract with a NTC/NMC.

  2. Give him 6.753987104 million for 8 years and call it a day.

  3. BTW, did you catch this little dig at you:

    DennisTFP “@M_Mason112: @DennisTFP Over under 48 hours until we hear about DD signing?”Over. No deal in principle in place.
    about 7 hours ago

Trackbacks

  1. Shea Weber’s Award Does Not Translate to Drew Doughty’s Contract, Part II « S U R L Y & S C R I B E L.A. Kings Hockey Blog
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 3,831 other followers

%d bloggers like this: