L.A. Kings Fans – Maple Leafs Left Wing, Clarke MacArthur

The basics:

6’0″, 191 pounds, 26 years old
Left Wing, A left handed shot

An Alberta boy, drafted 2003, 3rd round (74th) overall by the Buffalo Sabres.

Contract:

He is signed to a $3.25 million dollar per season contract this season and next.

Statistics:

Here is a link to Clarke MacArthur’s career stats.

Analysis:

He was an all-star in juniors, won a AJHL championship with the Drayton Thunder and a league championship with Medicine Hat of the WHL. MacArthur was also a member of Canada’s gold-medal-winning squad at the 2005 WJC. You know that Dean Lombardi likes those “winners.”

A career .145 is a damn respectable shooting percentage. One could argue that is “elite” status. By comparison, Anze Kopitar is .121, Mike Richards .116, Justin Williams .093, Dustin Penner .127, Simon Gagne .128, Jarret Stoll .094, and Dustin Brown is .101. Here is something that may blow your mind. His shooting percentage this season is .167. This kid can bury the biscuit.

At 26, he is entering his prime. The book on him is he is a good skater, has a great shot (read: snipe), can get open but can be streaky. I don’t know much about his physical and checking ability. Everything I have ever heard about him is that he is an offensive minded left wing.

His contract is a bit steep. Then again, much of this depends on whether or not we keep Jarret Stoll. MacArthur isn’t a “rental” in the literal sense. Many thought he was a steal when the Toronto Maple Leafs scooped him up after the Atlanta Thrashers (RIP) walked away from his arbitration award. He had 21 goals and 61 points last season on a below average Leafs team. He has missed some games with upper and lower body injuries this season. I am getting the sense he is in Ron Wilson’s dog house.

According to Darren Dreger, the Leafs are looking to dump the contract and may only want picks or prospects going the other way. My suspicion? The Maple Leafs are looking to make a bigger move and Clarke’s contract is in the way. If that is not it, one has to wonder if they would take Jarret Stoll who, one could argue, is an older version of MacArthur at center. Jarret’s contract is up after this season so the Leafs would get a player who can arguably help them this season without a commitment beyond while the L.A. Kings can get that much needed help at left wing. If it is picks and prospects, so long as Dean Lombardi does not overpay, we have that – would Alec Martinez and a 3rd do it?

What do you kids think?

Here is some video while you decide. I did laugh at the first video…er, foreshadow?



Categories: L.A. Kings News

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46 replies

  1. I’d take him

  2. I watch the Leafs quite a bit and I can tell you he is either in Wilson’s doghouse or just lost in the shuffle (as is Matt Lombardi). I would take him for sure. If you saw his goal today he made a great pass on a 2 on one and he finished it . He’s had great chemistry with Grabovski this year for sure as well (i.e. he does well with a guy who can set him up, especially for a one-timer.) He plays with a little bit of an edge, he fights, and can lay down a hit. It would be a good subtle move for the right price for sure.

    • Are you suspecting the Leafs want to get rid of the contract? Why wouldn’t someone like Clarke be a keeper?

      • I think they have an excess of the same type of player on their roster (speedy 2nd/3rd line winger). MacArthur’s contract is larger than the other players they have since most are very young. They have quite a few rookies and guys on ELC’s that could fill his spot and make room for a big name guy in a trade. They want to make a push and moving him might be a smart move for them if they’re looking for cap space. They are pretty much at the cap and MacArthur has the 5th largest cap hit at 3.25. I could see them moving MacArthur and/or Lombardi (cap hit 3.5) at the deadline for a low-cap defenseman or prospects/picks. It also would significantly help them in the off-season, getting that space helps re-sign players with expiring contracts (Liles, Grabovski,Kulemin, Gustavsson, etc.), or go after free agents.

  3. I added highlight videos to the article

  4. Sounds too good to be true. Draft picks and 1 player midlevel player, plus draft picks would be perfect.

    The Kings could put Gagne on LTIR, they would have 1/2 his salary retroactive to whenever, plus 700k in cap space, plus they could go over the cap by around 1.75 mill without being penalized by the NHL because of Gagnes’ LTIR, giving the Kings roughly about 4.2 to spend. If the Kings could shed 1 mill off the roster, that would free up a spot on the 23 man limit, and leave the room to take on his salary without being penalized by the NHL.

    Not sure I got it all right, but if it is, the Kings could add, without subtracting at all.

  5. No, no, no, no, no, no . . .

    Something about this ain’t right. A 26-year-old guy who hits, fights, skates, shoots-to-kill — and he’s in Wilson’s “doghouse”? The Leafs are anxious to unload him because his cap-hit’s too high?

    I dunno why a voice in the back of my noggin is screaming, “Bullshit,” but I hear it clear as a bell. Moreover, when Scribe gets excited by trade possibilities, he acts like a Cocker Spaniel trying to fuck your leg — not the best attitude to have when you start computing the value of important assets.

    For example:

    Stoll is, admittedly, having a rough contract-year. Last season he was covered in sperm, winning face-offs, scoring career-highs, played all the ice on both sides of the puck — PP and PK, included — and was positively lethal in shoot-outs. It’s not completely self-delusory to hope those days will come again.

    With Voynov playing like his dick was erect at birth it may seem that Martinez is expendable. But AM’s rate of improvement is so striking that I’d hate to see him exhibit his best in Toronto.

    I wanna see more evidence that this Clarke won’t be just another talented winger who comes to L.A. and vanishes in the same Black Asshole of Doom that swallows so many who’ve scored well elsewhere.

    Same-same for draft picks. We’ve spent a lotta those over the past few months. Maybe more than we should have.

    So let’s tread this ground slowly, oh-so-slowly. It’s filled with mines that can blow our nuts off.

    • Plus, why waste chips on a maybe?

      With the cards DL currently holds he has only one shot (if that) to get it rignt.

    • Stoll is having a “rough” contract year? Really? are we watching the same LA Kings games where, game after game, Stoll clutches, holds, and hooks players as the skate by him; miss wide open nets with his once lethal shot; and consistently looks like he is skating with a load of shit in his pants? I say get rid of him now for whatever we can get for him. Throw in Penner’s sorry excuse for an ideal hockey physique that he has absolutely no freaking idea to do with unless playing with guys like Selanne, Getzlaf, or Perry to put the biscuit directly on his tape as he parks his fat, monsterous ass in front of the net. I am so sick of watching Stoll and Penner waste valuable ice time when because of their “potential” to be good players – not great players – but good players. Sorry, I’ve been holding this in for some time. Carry on ..nothing else here … these aren’t the droids you are looking for

      • Anyone who read the first two sentences of this comment and then the third up to “LA Kings game…” would have thought you were about to defend Stoll. You sneaky bastard. What was that?

  6. we don’t have a 3rd (thank you mr. penner) and we traded the pick we got from the maple leafs to nashville

  7. What the hell, go after him! He would do well with kopitar, brown on 2nd line and pancakes goes to 3rd line. DO IT DEAN!!!

  8. MacArthur although having some decent stats with the Leafs isn’t as good as it seems.

    He was pretty average with Buffalo and had one of those good 1st season showing with a pretty bad Laughs team.

    Mikhail Grabovski would be a better acquisition. He would be a perfect 3rd line center or wing, and he is a UFA after this season. His currently making 3.1mill and CAP hit is 2.9 million, which isn’t as much a a lot of players with his stats.

    Factor in his agent is here in Los Angeles, and he isn’t a soft Belrusian and will fight. Hell he was suspended for shovling an official in a fight with a fellow Belarusian, Andrei Kostitsyn, He had a fight in a bar in Vancouver during the Vancouver Olympics he’s perfect.

    I was watching the Leafs game last night and they mentioned Burke would entertain trading him if the Laughs are out of the playoff race.

    I found it hysterical hearing the Bob Cole and Greg Millen talk for a brief few seconds last night about the likely hood of Grabovski being traded, and what Burke would want in return. A few scenerios were: If Burke got a similar deal like Edmonton got for Penner.

    Here is a Hockey Writers article on Grabovski which is what was talked about by the Laughs analysts Daren Millard, Nick Kypreos, Doug Maclean who do pregame, between period and postgame specifically for the Laughs.

    http://thehockeywriters.com/weighing-the-options-toronto-maple-leafs-mikhail-grabovski/

  9. Take him if its a cheap deal. pics the year tho, we have no 2nd or 3rd round picks already

  10. He got into a fight at an all star game?! Okay, yeah, why not?

  11. While the highlight videos look nice, wouldn’t his $3.25 million cap hit NEXT year create potential problems for DL going after Parise (assuming he hasn’t been traded to Detroit and sign an extension with them by then)?

  12. at this point – i really don’t want another mid-level player. if we can dump penner or stoll, then maybe.

  13. The bottom line is that this guys career numbers suck and will continue sucking wherever he is. We need a player that can create offense, a serious playmaker, and they just aren’t available. Unfortunately, our farm system will not be helping either. Enjoy our scrappy grind into the playoffs and early exit. Quick may steal us the first round but ‘That’s all folks!’

    • Playmaker? We have a team of playmakers. We need goal scorers

      • I have little doubt that the Kings could very easily play shorthanded in the defensive zone, to allow Jarri Kurri to park at the attacking blue line until we get there with the puck. Next, they cycle down low until Kurri gets to the faceoff dot. Then, it is a simple matter of putting the puck within 5 feet of the guy for him to score a goal. He might not even need to wear skates, unless there is a mandatory rule about it.

  14. I would be nervous about Dean discussing any trades with Brian Burke. Have there been any trades excuted by Burke in Toronto where the Maple Leafs were the clear winners, or at the least a push?

    I would worry about Dean getting fleeced by Burke.

  15. Whats going to happen to Gagne??

  16. “A career .145 is a damn respectable shooting percentage. One could argue that is “elite” status. By comparison, Anze Kopitar is .121, Mike Richards .116, Justin Williams .093, Dustin Penner .127, Simon Gagne .128, Jarret Stoll .094, and Dustin Brown is .101. Here is something that may blow your mind. His shooting percentage this season is .167. This kid can bury the biscuit.”

    That is not how shooting percentage works. Shooting percentage is heavily luck driven. if you look at the leaders in shooting percentage (post lockout) you won’t find most of the leagues elite players. MacArthur’s inflated shooting percentage is more of an arguement as to why a team would want to stay away from him (i.e. shooting percentage regression which would lead to less goals). Over a large enough sample shooting percentage always trend to league average.

    • “Shooting percentage is heavily luck driven.”

      That is one of the oddest statements I have read about hockey. What does that even mean?

      Sidney Crosby. .152. Boy, he sure is lucky. Is that anywhere near the “league average”?

      • I know that you don’t pay attention to other sports but wouldn’t shooting percentage in hockey be no different than shooting percentage in basketball. Now the success rate may be lower but I certainly don’t think that it is luck driven. If you’re good enough to hit the edges and not shoot directly into the goalie don’t you have an increased chance?

        • For me, it’s just simple math. I suppose “luck” is a factor in anything in hockey and all sports but to claim it is “heavily” luck driven is bizarre. Here is an example. You take a shot. Goalie saves it. You take a second shot. You score. Imagine if every other shot you took, you scored. You take 200 shots in a season. You score 100 goals. Is that luck? Of course not. Wayne Gretzky’s records are in serious danger. If you score on average 1 time out of 20 shots, that is not “bad” luck either. You just suck.

        • “but wouldn’t shooting percentage in hockey be no different than shooting percentage in basketball.”

          Hockey is played on a slippery sheet of ice, where you bat around a small piece of rubber while travelling at high speeds so there will be a high degree of randomness in the short term. Yes there is skill involved (all players at the NHL level are insanely skilled and obviously some more than others) but shooting percentage is not the best way to measure that skill (at least not in small samples).

      • I didn’t say it was completely luck driven. I’m not saying that skill doesn’t play any factor. Obviously it does. But in small samples (and Clarke MacArthur’s career shot total of 500 is a relatively small sample, Sidney Crosby by contrast has about 1500) there is a high degree of variance in shooting percentage.

        Here’s a link elucidating my point:

        http://drivingplay.blogspot.com/2011/08/on-luck-skill-and-sample-size-in.html

        Another way to think about it…someone once did a study on variance in shooting percentage in hockey and discovered that after a whole season (that’s about 2000 shots), if you gave an average team an average season and ordinary variance play itself out, they could at the end of the year rank anywhere in the top 25 in goals per game.

        Basically my point is that in order to try to evaluate somebodies skill level or effectiveness, shooting percentange isn’t reliable in small samples as a sole basis, you’re better off looking at shooting stats along with a few other metrics.

        • I didn’t write that you wrote solely or completely. You wrote heavily and that is what I quoted. And I disagree it is “heavily” luck.

          I will look at your metrics. I am not a fan of some of these advanced stats. Hockey, as a sport, does not lend itself to it like football, baseball and basketball do but that is a different discussion. I have found shooting percentage to be a good indicator of a player’s reasonable goal scoring ability and 500 shots is not a small sample. I wonder if we looked at the league’s top snipers whether we would find a shooting percentage of .120 or higher.

          • the link i posted explains why I say “heavily” and “500 is a small sample”.

            Here’s another link which discusses the predictive nature of shooting percentage:

            http://drivingplay.blogspot.com/2012/01/anomalies-is-shooting-percentage.html

            As far as “advanced stats” In hockey…they are not all that advanced really. They are mainly just under-utilitized counting stats. What sucks is that they all tend to have stupid names which make them try to sound fancier than they actually are.

          • My cursory glance at that article tells me it is talking about TEAM shooting percentage, which is a entirely different argument than discussing individual shooting percentages. Saying that “team shooting percentages even out over a season” or whatever the point of this is, has nothing to do with “an individual with a good shooting percentage has a good shot” which is the basis of Bobby’s support of McArthur (I haven’t decided how I feel about him yet – I’m still somewhat stuck in “just get SOMEBODY, ANYBODY!” mode), that McArthur is a good shooter and we lack good shooters. I would think shooting percentage is a good indicator of whether someone is a good shooter, so long as they take their fair share of shots (after all, taking 50 shots in a season and scoring 6 goals doesn’t really help anyone).

          • Here is a metric that goes back a little bit in time and may not be as “advanced” but I have found applies to just about everything in hockey, including goal scoring, and life.

            “I’m a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it.” – Thomas Jefferson.

          • Love the quote but always thought ‘harder’ should be replaced with ‘better and more focused’.

  17. Brian Burke doesn’t usually make stupid trades. Everyone said he was crazy to get Kessel. Um, working out ok. And Lupol as a throw in. Sure, BB can be had. He only got Lupol and his 20 goals (so far) as the throw in.

    Agree w Tuan Jim. I wouldn’t trust it, and while DL has his qualities, and got the better end of the JW trade, I don’t trust him enough.

    • Ummm actually BB isn’t as big a genius as made out to be. I would rather have Seguin, Hamilton and Knight instead of Kessel, EASILY. Yes the trade for Lupul was good and the trade for Franson, but the Boston one wasnt at all.

  18. For any fans interested in advanced stats. The official advanced NHL stats are hard for some to find, or even figure out. Here’s a Kingsfan who (through timeonice.com and behindthenet.com ) posts the Kings stats for every game.

    http://theannoyingpeasant.com/

  19. I just worry Stoll will be kept for face-off insurance and “veteran leadership” heading into the playoff run.

  20. A guy on the cusp, signed to short contract, that is seemingly lost in the shuffle on another team. A contract that, maybe they want to dump and would part with for very little? Sounds exactly like the kind of trade DL would make right now.

    He knows that this team’s success in the post season is not going to hinge on a trade, but they certainly do need a little depth.

    I’m sold.

  21. Leafs fan here. Mac is has been in Wilson’s doghouse for a few games (Wilson put MacArthur on the 4th line and told him he’ll move back up when he starts moving his feet) but I’d say he is back out of the doghouse after his two goal game last night.

    If he is available then it is probably because they need to clear cap space for another trade, otherwise it wouldn’t make much sense to dump a relatively gritty 20+ goal scorer when the teams biggest needs are grit and secondary scoring.

  22. Interesting. Rich Hammond basically came up with the same conclusions that I came up with earlier on Gagnes’ LTIR, and how it could effect any cap space.

    All this trade Stoll, trade Penner stuff would only drop the cap, and make the space larger to fill. The Kings can’t trade a roster player with a big cap hit if they want to take advantage of the overage they are entitled too.

    I came up with 4.2 mill, but Rich is probably closer at 3.6 mill.

    That money will most likely go to players who already have 1/2 their salaries payed for.

  23. Have no idea who this guy is. From the highlights he kinda reminds me of a Mike Richards style of play. Not saying he’s as good as Richards but a similar style. If he’s truly lacking a really good playmaker than Richards would be a good fit. I know Richards makes some really lousy passes (but who doesn’t) sometimes but I understand what he’s trying to do with it. So if this guy or some other guy can “understand” what Richards is trying to do then the two could be doing well together. Too bad Gagne’s out, I was expecting to see some brilliant stuff from those two.

  24. He sure sounds like a Kings top 6 forward. Average size and Just south of 20 inconsistent goals a year. We need finishers. We are awash with role payers but lack a star.

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