A Real Look At The NHL Standings – Don’t Tell Hammond.
Player-X comes to us with his fourth…third…sixth? Fourth, pretty sure it’s the fourth article for S&S. One more and he is a stalker. Enjoy.
Never mind how pissed I am that Hammond butchered a perfectly fine idea for a full article by using incomplete stats in a superficial subject-skim, a full 11 days after my original article posted here at S&S. He has a right to publish whatever he wants, and who is to say he actually saw my article (Playoffs?…) complete with all he posted and more, especially the chart of teams’ games left. It’s not an issue; I’m over it. Actually, I have no idea why you would even bring it up; it doesn’t concern me in the least.
Anyway, here is a more in-depth update to the subject of remaining games, playoff chances and how the schedule (home vs. road games left) impacts those chances of various teams making the playoffs.
The Kings have 12 home, and 20 road games left, having so far taken 55 points of 98 possible for a winning percentage of .5612.
Going deeper, the Kings have a home record of 32 points from a possible 58 for .5517, and a road record of 26 out of a possible 42 for .6190. Multiply these percentages against remaining games left yields 13.24 points at home and 24.76 points on the road. Add them together including the .24 and .76 leftovers, just to use the slop (like a pig farmer) to keep things tidy and you get a total rounded to 38 more points if the Kings maintain the same pace at home and on the road. This gives a season total of 93 points.
Getting even more technical now, that “ain’t very damn good.” If the consensus projected total of 96ish points being necessary to get in is correct, the Kings need to improve. However, what if all teams maintained their current home and road paces?
Now that we have the formula, here is the team-by-team comparison chart:
Detroit 18 home @ .8913 = 32.09 PLUS 14 road @ .4814 = 13.47 yields 113 total
BitchAss Vancouver 18 home @ .6739 = 24.26 PLUS 15 road @ .6346 = 19.04 yields 107 total
San Jose 16 home @ .6400 = 20.48 PLUS 19 road @ .6363 = 24.18 yields 105 total
Chicago 12 home @ .7241 = 17.37 PLUS 20 road @ .5238 = 20.95 yields 102 total
Nashville 15 home @ .6730 = 10.10 PLUS 17 road @ .6041 = 20.54 yields 95 total
St. Louis 13 home @ .8214 = 10.68 PLUS 20 road @ .4523 = 18.09 yields 94 total
Minnesota 19 home @ .6590 = 25.05 PLUS 14 road @ .4814 = 13.48 yields 94 total
Kings 12 home @ .5517 = 13.24 PLUS 20 road @ .6190 = 24.76 yields 93 total
PunkAss Dallas 16 home @ .6000 = 19.20 PLUS 18 road @ .4782 = 17.21 yields 88 total
Colorado 15 home @ .5384 = 16.15 PLUS 16 road @ .5200 = 16.64 yields 87 total
Calgary 19 home @ .6363 = 24.18 PLUS 13 road @ .4286 = 11.14 yields 87 total
Phoenix 18 home @ .5217 = 18.78 PLUS 14 road @ .4814 = 13.48 yields 84 total
Anaheim 15 home @ .5192 = 15.57 PLUS 19 road @ .3636 = 13.82 yields 72 total
If the Kings, and all other teams, maintain their exact percentage paces at home and on the road, the Kings’ road prowess saves them and they get in.
Note the Red Wings are currently on a streak of 17 wins at home, and have gained 41 of a possible 46 points. Pricks. It seems unlikely for that trend to continue, however it also would have seemed equally unlikely for it to ever happen in the first place. Plus, they suck on the road and I am just happy to find any hard stat showing that the Red Wings suck at anything.
St. Louis drops two spots in the standings to 6th over time, as their home record excellence runs out of games left and they have been poor on the road. Chicago climbs two spots from their current placement in the standings, passing Nashville and replacing St. Louis in 4th. Nashville also climbs over St. Louis for 5th. Minnesota passes the Kings for 7th, and the Kings make it in, for 8th position but with a 5-point cushion to a group of 4 teams between 88 and 84 points.
As His Gentle Honor Tuan Jim pointed out to me ever so kindly in the last article comments, past performance is neither dispositive nor determinative of future performance. He could have simply quoted any stock brokerage firm, saying past results don’t guarantee future similar results, but then again his entire point seems an attempt to discount the time-tested and mandatory prospectus given to investors. Anyway, his comments washed off my back like water-bottle backwash off a Duck from Anaheim, it is not an issue and actually never bothered me at all. Why bring it up?
I did not look at which team has a tougher schedule, or rank quality of opponents, or which team has more back-to-backs, greater travel, more divisional games, etc. I will leave that for the bookies, and for those who are even sicker than I am. I do know the Kings have some really tough periods, some of which Hammond discussed in his own “Cliff Notes” way. Here is what I said 11 days ago:
So,… it means that the most important games will be the road games against conference rivals; the 4 point games on the road will likely tell the story.
I am looking at 13 road games: Vancouver=2, Minnesota=2, Nashville=2, San Jose, St. Louis, PunkAss Dallas, Phoenix, Anaheim, Colorado and Calgary all = 1 each. Critical games where we control our own fate in the standing but have to go into their building.
The Stars game is the second night in back-to-back, coming in from the freakin’ Islanders building. Yikes. The Avalanche game is a second night, too, right after a Phoenix game. Big two nights there. The first Wild game is the night after playing Nashville, and the second Wild game is the night after playing those pesky Oilers. Lots of these games are the second night of back-to-back game days, dammit.
Since the article posted on Jan. 16, the Kings lost in shootout to the Oilers and beat Vancouver in those road games. 3 of 4 points is .750, eet woz varrry goood. Must keep doing.
The original point when I was talking about the Kings making the playoffs was that this team, with a significant recent history of losing streaks after the All-Star break, probably couldn’t afford such a losing streak this year. I still think that is so. Thanks for reading.